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The NFL’s back, baby
07 September 2007
by Jerrad Peters

THE National Football League is brilliant. And while that hardly comes as news to anyone, the media masterminds at the league’s head offices seem to find ways of creating consumer frenzy with every fresh idea to roll off the PR production line. Opening Kickoff, modeled after opening day in Major League Baseball, is the newest such event – just bigger and with more commercials starring Peyton Manning.

The first game of the 2007 season was preceded by all the trimmings of a Superbowl. Pre-game shows, concerts, and a ridiculously overdone performance of The Star Spangled Banner – it may just as well have been early February instead of September.

There was also that little business of the game on the field. The hometown Indianapolis Colts hammered the returning NFC South champion New Orleans Saints 41-10 at the RCA Dome. Peyton Manning threw for 288-yards and three touchdowns and Joseph Addai ran for 118-yards as the Colts opened the season with a bang. If the match-up was indeed a likely Superbowl preview, as many pundits made it out to be, that assessment may have been dealt a serious blow. The Saints were pitiful on defense – cornerback Jason David was victimized three times by long passes; and neither Drew Brees nor running-backs Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush could kick-start the offense. Brees tossed for just 183-yards on 40-attempts and was picked twice for interceptions.

Still, the Saints should be easy favorites to repeat in the NFC South. But that may have less to do with their own abilities than the downfall of several divisional rivals. Michael Vick has fallen further than anyone and the Atlanta Falcons are unlikely to win many games without him this season. Quarterback Joey Harrington, after failed stints in Detroit and Miami, will hope to finally get it right under new head coach Bobby Petrino. If he doesn’t, the Falcons will struggle to climb out of the NFC basement. That said, Warrick Dunn offers a consistent threat along the ground and Alge Cumpler is a competent tight-end. Still, the best-case scenario for the Falcons is that the fall-out from the Vick controversy creates something of a siege mentality in the squad. An us-against-the-world outlook may be the club’s biggest weapon this season.

If the window hasn’t closed on the Carolina Panthers, it is closing fast. After a handful of seasons where they disappointed after being pegged as contenders in the NFC, this may be the Panthers’ final kick at the can. Jake Delhomme isn’t getting any younger and David Carr did little in Houston to suggest that coach John Fox has a reliable back-up quarterback to fall back on. The team’s biggest offensive weapon remains the one-two punch of wide-receiver Steve Smith and running-back DeShaun Foster. The Panthers should be a lock for second-place in the division; but pushing New Orleans for top spot and contending for a wild-card berth might be a bit far for this bunch.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are resting their hopes on the 37-year-old shoulders of Jeff Garcia. After a spectacular stretch-drive with the Philadelphia Eagles last season, the former Calgary Stampeders quarterback will be hard-pressed to lift this team into play-off contention. In Joey Gallaway, however, he will have a decent threat at wide-receiver and Cadillac Williams is a good back. One also has to wonder if this won’t be John Gruden’s last season in charge of the Bucs. Of course, an appearance in the post-season would put that speculation to rest. But that’s probably too much to ask.

The Chicago Bears are essentially starting the season with six wins in the bag. Last year’s NFC champions are a lock to repeat in the North and are unlikely to be challenged from each of their three regional competitors. Still, quarterback Rex Grossman has a lot to prove. After an up-and-down season where he looked the real-deal one week and completely useless the next, Grossman had an absolute dud in the Superbowl. Lovie Smith is a patient man, but even he may be forced into making a switch if he doesn’t get some stability in the position.

Surprisingly, the Detroit Lions look a good bet to finish runners-up in the division. The club’s first overall pick in the 2007 Draft, Calvin Johnson, will immediately be slotted into one of the wide-receiver positions and quarterback John Kitna will also have a decent running option in newly-acquired running-back Tatum Bell. Anything other than dead-last in the division would be a significant improvement for coach Rod Marinelli and the Lions. And they have good reason to be optimistic.

That reason, quite simply, is the Minnesota Vikings. The club is placing an outrageous amount of pressure on young quarterback Tavaris Jackson. And even if he meets or exceeds those expectations, there’s just not enough in the dressing-room to suggest that the Vikings will win more than five games this season. The club’s best attacking options are running-backs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor – hardly the spectre of intimidation.

Brett Favre’s swan-song won’t be quite as depressing as Tavaris Jackson’s baptism-by-fire in the Twin Cities. But the veteran Green Bay Packers quarterback won’t have much to pump his fist about this season. Green Bay should finish ahead of arch-rivals Minnesota; but even second-place is probably out of reach. It’s hard to believe that just three years ago the Packers and the Vikings were genuine threats in the NFC.

It’s been a lot longer than three years since the San Francisco 49ers had anything to play for past the middle of October. But that is about to chance – perhaps as early as this season. Coach Mike Nolan has a host of offensive weapons at his disposal. Quarterback Alex Smith will be able to utilize both tight-end Vernon David and wide-receiver Darrell Jackson through the air while Frank Gore was a revelation at running-back last season. A few good breaks, and the 49ers might just be among the wild-card contenders after Thanksgiving.

The NFC West, however, is likely to be won by the Seattle Seahawks for a fourth consecutive campaign. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will have his best assortment of receivers since claiming the starting job under head coach Andy Reid. Each of Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, and D.J. Hackett will pull down their share of passes. Add a healthy Shaun Alexander into the mix, and you have the makings of another division title.

A legitimate threat to Seattle’s dominance in the West will come out of St. Louis this season. Coach Steven Jackson is in charge of the best Rams squad since the early this decade and is expecting nothing less than postseason football. Marc Bulger is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL; and the same can be said for wide-receiver Torry Holt in his position.

The lone whipping-boy in the division will once again be the pitiful Arizona Cardinals. Despite the presence of star running-back Edgerrin James and the emergence of Matt Leinart at quarterback, it promises to be another long autumn in the desert. Wide-receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will finally give Leinart something to throw at; but coach Ken Whisenhunt will consider a six-win season to be a success.

The NFC West is a bit of a crapshoot. While the Dallas Cowboys appear favored to win the division and the Washington Redskins destined for last-place, the jury is out on both the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.

Donovan McNabb, knock on wood, is hoping to complete a season for the first time in three years. His favorite go-to man on offense, Brian Westbrook, is one of the most versatile offensive players in the NFL and will have to have his best season yet in order for the Eagles to contend for a wild-card spot. The acquisition of linebacker Takeo Spikes from Buffalo will help the defense immensely. McNabb looked superb in preseason and his ability to bounce back after almost two years on the sidelines will almost single-handedly determine the Eagles’ fate.

Tom Coughlin is walking a fine line as coach of the New York Giants. Many of his players have rallied around him in difficult times; but that is beginning to wear thin – along with the patience of owner John Mara. Quarterback Eli Manning is going to have to step forward for this team to have any shot at the play-offs. And he really has no excuses if he fails in doing so. In Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Jeremy Shockey, Manning has three capable receivers which would be the envy of most other quarterbacks. Tiki Barber’s retirement leaves a glaring hole at the running-back position – one that Reuben Droughns and Brandon Jacobs will struggle to fill.

Wade Phillips has replaced Bill Parcells as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Admittedly burned-out by the modern NFL, Parcells may wish he had stuck around for one more season, because the Cowboys have as good a chance as any at representing the NFC in the Superbowl. Much of that hope will rest with quarterback Tony Romo. After an excellent start to his 2006 campaign, Romo struggled down the stretch and was ineffective against the Seahawks in the play-offs. If he can find the form that saw him storm out of the gate last season, he will be one-third of an impressive triple-threat along with running-back Julius Jones and receiver Terrell Owens.

The Washington Redskins are more concerned about next year’s draft than this post-season. Quarterback Jason Campbell, having chased Mark Brunnell out of town, will try to get the most out of an offense that boasts little after star receiver Santana Moss and highlight-reel running-back Clinton Portis. Barring a miracle, it promises to be a long season in the nation’s capital.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the last team from the NFC to win a Superbowl. That was back in 2002; and the pattern is unlikely to change this season. There are at least four teams in the AFC which are probably better than the best the NFC has to offer.

The New England Patriots are at the front of the pack. After barely missing out on a fourth Superbowl appearance in six years last season, coach Bill Belichick responded by assembling the most talented cast of offensive players in his seven years at the club. Quarterback Tom Brady, arguably the best in the business, can pick his poison. Receivers Randy Moss and Dante Stallworth will be frequent visitors to the end-zone and there should be some good competition for carries between running-backs Kevin Faulk and Lawrence Maroney. The lone downer at the outset is the status of Rodney Harrison. He was assessed a 4-game suspension for the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

While the Patriots should have the AFC East tied-up, the Buffalo Bills should offer the New York Jets some competition for second-place. The club’s top draft-pick, Marshawn Lynch, is highly-rated by both head coach Dick Jauron and General Manager Marv Levy. If he can live up to the high expectations, Bills fans may soon forget the departed Willis McGahee. And if quarterback J.P. Lossman continues his development, the Bills should break .500.

The New York Jets won’t be surprising anybody this season. Even head coach Eric Mangini will have “playoffs” on the tip of his tongue all year – a word he banned his players from using in 2006. Quarterback Chad Pennington was spectacular, last season, after recovering from shoulder surgeries which wiped out back-to-back campaigns in 2004 and 2005. He will expected to provide more of the same this time around. He has a keen understanding with wide-receiver Laveranues Coles – one of the best quarter-back-receiving combos in the NFL.

Finally, the Miami Dolphins should have no doubt as to where they’ll end up this season. Ironically, 37-year-old quarterback Trent Green will be expected to provide a fresh face to the Dolphin offense in what promises to be a scoring-challenged year. Head Coach Cam Cameron’s best hope will be the defense, where the acquisition of strong linebacker Joey Porter will add to a corps that already boasts Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. But you can only go so far without scoring; and for the Dolphins, that won’t be very far at all.

The San Diego Chargers already know that they’ll be playing play-off football in January. Just how many games remains to be seen. But the club was proactive, this off-season – sacking the post-season jinxed Marty Shottenheimer and installing Norv Turner as the head coach. Depending on how you look at it, Turner will be either blessed or cursed by having the most talented player in the NFL at his disposal. LaDainian Tomlinson is coming off a record-breaking season and is unlikely to suffer a lapse in form any time soon. His play, along with that of Philip Rivers and Shaun Merriman, annul any excuses that Turner may have if he can’t get this team over the hump – soon.

The Denver Broncos poise the only threat to San Diego’s march to the AFC West championship. Jay Cutler will be the starting quarterback from start to finish, this season, and has an excellent running-back in Travis Henry at his disposal. Dre Bly was also acquired to play opposite Champ Bailey on the defensive corners. Coach Mike Shanahan has seen it all in his twelve seasons in Denver and will see his club in the hunt again this year.

That’s more than can be said for Herman Edwards at Kansas City. The Chiefs surprised a lot of people last year with their 9-6 record. Unfortunately for their fans, however, the team will be hard-pressed to replicate that result this season. Damon Huard, all of 34-years-old, will be the starting quarterback; and there is nothing by way of depth behind him. Running-back Larry Johnson is the club’s best hope going forward. The receiving corps is not great and the defense is awful after Ty Law.

As bad as the Chiefs are sure to be, the Oakland Raiders are an entirely different kind of bad. That said, things are looking up in Southern California. In Lane Kiffen, the Raiders have the youngest head coach in the NFL. And if Kiffen could all of a sudden resurrect the career of Daunte Culpepper, seven or eight wins would not be out of the question. But that’s a big “if.” For starters, the number-one job is Josh McCown’s to lose. His holding onto it might be the best-case scenario for the Raiders. LaMont Jordan is a decent back and should exceed 1000-yards rushing.

No quarterback will be expected to carry his team as much this season as Steve McNair. The Baltimore Ravens pivot led his team to a play-off appearance last year and will have Willis McGahee at his beck-and-call this time around. A few throwing touchdowns wouldn’t hurt; but coach Brian Billick obviously recognizes that his club is more adept to emulating the Chicago Bears than Indianapolis Colts. On paper, the Ravens should be favored to win the division. But those expectations are contingent on McNair’s health and fitness.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be looking to rebound after a disappointing 2006 season. After defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Superbowl XL, things seemed to nose-dive in Steeltown. Ben Roethlisberger missed the start of the season after a motorcycle accident and things never really came together after that. New head coach Mike Tomlin will be hoping that a full season from Big Ben will be enough for a play-off push. Still, the loss of Joey Porter was huge. He was the face of the modern steel-curtain and his absence cannot be overstated.

The Cincinnati Bengals, should enough of them qualify for early parole, are confident that they can challenge for top-spot in the AFC North. But too many things have to come together perfectly for that to happen. For starters, the team discipline has to improve drastically. And some of that responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Marvin Lewis. That said, if they can stay out of trouble, Cincinnati’s offense should remain one of the best groups in the NFL. When healthy, Carson Palmer is an elite quarterback. And the receiving tandem of Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is as good as it gets. Running-back Rudi Johnson only adds to the firepower. It is in defense that the Bengals will struggle (see Indy a la 2003). Still, there may be enough here for a wild-card spot.

The Cleveland Browns are really the only team in the AFC North who know that they will not be playing post-season football. At least they should. Head coach Romeo Crennel is a phenomenal bench-boss; and one has to wonder what he would be able to do given a deep, talented squad. He does have a few pieces to work with in Cleveland. Running-back Jamal Lewis has arrived via Baltimore and should provide a legitimate threat along the ground. And high-profile draft pick Brady Quinn has all the tools. Whether he puts them to use or not is another story. Crennel is hoping he can. Because backups Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are not likely to strike fear into opposing the opposing defense.

Like the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis might as well start the season with six wins in the bag. Beyond the Colts, there just isn’t a lot to like about the AFC South. Aside from Jack Del Rio’s suits, of course. The Jacksonville Jaguars head coach is easily the best-dressed bench-boss in the business.

His football team, on the other hand, is hardly as good looking. The quarterback position is a good place to start. Byron Leftwich was cut from the roster in the pre-season and replaced by backup David Garrard. One overweight crock for another, essentially. One has to wonder what the thought process was in making the decision. Is Garrard really a significant upgrade over Leftwich? The Jags’ most exciting player is undoubtedly running-back Maurice Jones-Drew. He had a superb rookie campaign and will be counted on to put up significant points this season for a team destined to miss the playoffs.

The Tennessee Titans are in the same boat – except with a legit starting quarterback. Vince Young is the real-deal, as he proved last season. And he will be expected to play in every game this time around as backup Kerry Collins doesn’t exactly inspire the confidence of the coach. The loss of Pacman Jones, however, will significantly hamper the Titans’ offense. Unfortunately, his absence will place significant pressure on rookie Chris Henry. There are some players here; but probably not enough quality to get over .500.

The David Carr era is finally over in Houston. Cue the Matt Schaub era. Unfortunately for head coach Gary Kubiak and Texans fans, not much is likely to change. Schaub simply has nobody to throw to. Ahman Green, acquired from the Green Bay Packers in the off-season, will probably provide just over 1000-yards rushing and a handful of touch-downs; but there will be little else to get excited about at Reliant Stadium in 2007.

Despite winning the Superbowl in February, the Indianapolis Colts are hardly a popular pick to repeat in 2007. The doom-and-gloom forecast has as much to do with the outgoing talent as much as anything else. Tarik Glenn was lost to retirement, outside linebacker Cato June signed with Tampa Bay, running-back Damian Rhodes joined the Raiders, and receiver Brandon Stokely signed-up with the Broncos. That said, head coach Tony Dungy still has the most formidable offensive arsenal in the NFL. Aside from Superbowl MVP Peyton Manning, running-back Joseph Addai had a superb rookie season and will be expected to deliver more of the same this year, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are Pro-Bowl wide-receivers, and tight-ends Ben Utech and Dallas Clark are some of the best in the business. On the other side of the ball, Dwight Freeney is a perennial sack leader and Bob Sanders is an elite safety. The Colts’ defense may have regressed slightly since last winter, but not enough to rule them out of contention this time around.

Predictions
I’M having a hard time calling the NFC. But I’m going to take a flyer on the Carolina Panthers. I’m not convinced that the Saints will enjoy the same kind of success this year that they experience last season and I feel that the Cowboys are dreadfully overrated. But I’m going to give special mention to the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. A lot of people are writing-off the G-men at the outset; but I’m not so sure. And I think Mike Nolan is going to pull the 9ers back to around the .500 mark. As for the divisional winners, I’ll take Dallas, Seattle, Chicago, and Carolina.

The AFC is equally tough to call, but for different reasons. I could choose any of San Diego, New England, Pittsburgh, or Indianapolis and probably have a realistic shot with each. The Broncos and Ravens are no slouches either. But the genius of Bill Belichick is too much to resist. I’m taking the Patriots for both the AFC honors and Superbowl champions. I think that Indianapolis will have another superb season; and they won’t come apart in the play-offs so much as the Patriots will be able to go toe-to-toe with them offensively. I think we’re only at the mid-point of the Tom Brady legend. As for the divisional winners, I’ll take New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis.