Jerrad Peters: How I see it
Major League Baseball post-season preview
02 October 2007
THEY have already given it a name in Denver: the Holliday Miracle. And while Monday, October 1 was hardly distinguishable from any other, regular Monday on the calendar, chances are that a good many Colorado workplace functioned short of staff as Rockies fans throughout the state took an impromptu long weekend.
And it won’t be one they forget anytime soon. The Colorado Rockies, after having gone 13-1 down the stretch, completed their improbable run to the post-season by beating the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on Monday night. In so doing, they claimed the National League wild-card spot and will face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game One of a best-of-five series tomorrow.
The thrilling 9-8 win over the Padres was just the seventh wild-card tiebreaker ever and first since the New York Mets squashed the Cincinnati Reds 5-0 in 1999. And it was a game which, until late last week, did not even appear on the horizon for manager Clint Hurdle and the Rockies. But with the wild-card spot seemingly secure, the Padres dropped three straight decisions to the Milwaukee Brewers to close out September and force the tiebreaker.
And although the teams were clearly headed in opposite directions when the first pitch was thrown on Monday, the Padres took a convincing lead after Josh Fogg gave up five runs in the first four innings. Even in the bottom of the 13th, with San Diego leading 8-6, the writing seemed to be on the wall for the hosts. But Padres closer Trevor Hoffman surrendered doubles from Kazuo Matsui and Troy Tulowitzki and a triple from Matt Holliday to level the runs scored at eight apiece.
Cue the miracle. After Todd Helton was intentionally walked, Jamey Carroll popped a sacrifice fly which brought Holliday sprinting home. Whether he tagged the plate or not will surely be a point of debate for some time. Catcher Michael Barrett appeared to block the left fielder’s run with his foot. But Padres manager Budd Black, perhaps to simply avoid further controversy, conceded that Holliday had, in fact, appeared to touch the plate.
Colorado will now travel to Philadelphia for Wednesday’s series opener. And if they can transfer Monday’s momentum into the best-of-five, they stand a good shot at displacing the National League East champions. To say that the pennant-winning Phillies are favorites in this match-up would be a stretch, to say the least. The National League is as tight as it has been in years – and that says something. The Mets were clearly the cream of the crop, at least on paper, when the season began. But their August swoon, and Colorado’s boom, speaks volumes as to the parity among the three divisions.
Second-baseman Chase Utley and Ryan Howard bring the bats that Philadelphia will most depend on. Utley hit .332 on the year and Howard pounded 47-home-runs and an additional 136-RBIs. They can’t afford to buckle under the post-season pressure, either. Philadelphia doesn’t have the kind of pitching that will win the tight, low-scoring games in the playoffs.
Colorado, despite recording just their fifth .500 season since 1993, should get through this round. Their bats have been on fire for well over a month – led by Holliday and his .280 batting average and 36-homers. All in all, the Rockies are hitting .280 as a team heading into October.
The NL Central-winning Chicago Cubs should be favored to represent the other half of the National League Championship Series. Carlos Zambrano, coming off an impressive 18-win season, will take the mound in Arizona on Wednesday. His counterpart, Brandon Webb, also won 18-games during the regular season – the best campaign of his five-year career to date.
There is simply nothing flashy about the Diamondbacks. Former Toronto Blue Jay Orlando Hudson was the most consistent hitter at .294 and centre-fielder Chris Young led the club with 32-home-runs. Eric Byrnes pounded-in 83-runs to pace the squad. Arizona gets contributions from throughout the batting order.
Chicago last won the World Series in 1908, a futility-streak of 99-years. But there seems to be a pattern in Major League Baseball, recently, where age-old curses are banished into distant memory. That fact alone has countless neutrals rooting for the Cubs.
History and myth aside, Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano will be looking to do the business on the field. Lee had another superb outing, hitting .317, and Soriano’s 33-home-runs led the team. Third-baseman Aramis Ramirez batted-in 101-runs and Canadian Ryan Dempster recorded an impressive 28-saves.
Things are just as tough to call on the other side of the draw. And, as recent history suggests, appropriately so. Since the New York Yankees won their last of three consecutive titles in 2000, there have been six different World Series champions – three from each league. But there is no disputing that, heading into the 2007 post-season, the big guns reside in the American League.
The Boston Red Sox and their 96-66 record lead the way. David Ortiz enjoyed another exceptional season at the club. His .332 batting average and 35-home-runs led the team in both categories. Mike Lowell, in his second season in Boston, batted-in 120-runs – an improvement of 40 over his 2006 total. Manager Terry Francona also has an intimidating group of starting pitchers at his disposal. Curt Schilling needs no introduction; and both Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield are capable starters as well. Daisuke Matsuzaka is an unknown quantity in the post-season. But the 27-year-hold, having won 15-games in his first Major League season, will be expected to deliver the goods in tight, October games.
The American League West champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will open their divisional series against the Red Sox at Fenway Park on Wednesday. And as usual, the Angels will be relying on their bats to see them through. Vladimir Guerrero hit a team-high 27-home-runs and added 125-RBIs while third-baseman Chone Figgans batted .330 on the season. As a club, the Angels hit a respectable .284 – good for fourth-best in the Majors.
Jock Lackey will get the start on Wednesday. The 6'6'' pitcher recorded 19-wins in 2007 but has only earned a single win over the Red Sox in seven outings. Caracas-born Francisco Rodriguez registered 40-saves this season; and the Angels will hope to rely on him to close-out a handful of good results. Nonetheless, Boston should win this series comfortably.
It will be far tighter in the American League's other divisional series. The wild-card winning New York Yankees trailed AL East rival Boston by 14.5-games at the end of May and found themselves 8.5-games back of the wild-card spot at the same time. A brilliant second half, however, propelled the Bronx Bombers into the post-season.
Alex Rodriguez produced another banner campaign in 2007 – smacking 54-homers and batting-in 156-runs for the Yankees. Jorge Posada led the team with a .338 batting average. The bats were smoking right through the lineup, in fact. As a team, the Yankees led the Majors with an average of .290.
Chinese pitcher Chien-Ming Wang was a revelation in his first season in North America. He posted an impressive 19-wins and will take the mound in Game One against the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Mariano Rivera posted 30-saves. Still, New York will have to tighten things defensively if they hope to advance to the American League Championship Series.
In C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the Cleveland Indians boast one of the best one-two pitching combinations in baseball. And if they can frustrate the Yankees through the first two games of their best-of-five series, manager Eric Wedge and his Tribe will be punching their tickets to the ALCS.
While their 96-wins was tied for tops in the Majors with Boston, overcoming the Yankees would still be considered an upset. The Indians have not made the play-offs since 2001and do not boast the sort of big-name hitters which will be sitting in the opposite dugout. Victor Martinez led the team in every offensive category – hitting .301 with 114-RBIs while notching 25-home-runs. His teammate, Garret Anderson, will be another of the Indians' foremost offensive weapons. Since the All-Star break, Anderson's 57-RBIs are the best in the MLB.
Cleveland's best chance at knocking-off the Yankees will come from their starting rotation. If Sabathia can get under the skin of the big guns in Game One, particularly A-Rod, the Yankees could crumble. Rodriguez is on a very short leash in New York City – as, for that matter, are many of his teammates. The Yankees are under enormous pressure to perform; and that can only benefit the Cleveland pitchers. Joe Berowski posted 45-saves in 2007 and is as good a closer as there is heading into the post-season.
You heard it here
Colorado over Philadelphia in 4
Chicago over Arizona in 5
Boston over Los Angeles in 3
New York Yankees over Cleveland in 4
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