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Jerrad Peters: How I see it
National Hockey League Preview
04 October 2007

SO the National Hockey League sold out its two regular season games in London, last week. So what? Big-league hockey will catch-on in the United Kingdom at about the same time that Canada wins the World Cup of soccer. It ain’t gonna happen.

That said, the NHL is quite right to promote itself abroad. Europe is a market well worth tapping into. Throughout Scandinavia, Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Russia, the NHL brand is one that is, if not dominant, at least recognizable. It is also a continent flush with cash. A recognizable brand and the opportunity to make money – two elements the league is sorely lacking in the United States.

The proposal by a local consortium to purchase the Nashville Predators has apparently gone belly-up. Go figure. Commissioner Gary Bettman’s reluctance to do a deal with Research in Motion CEO Jim Balsillie speaks volumes as to the league’s disdain for any transaction which provides a window of opportunity for the return of NHL hockey to Canada.

From an outsider’s view, having franchises in Nashville, Atlanta, and south Florida instead of Winnipeg, Hamilton, and Quebec City isn’t only ridiculous, it’s simply bad business. The league clearly has no sense of where it is or where it’s going. It certainly isn’t going into Europe.

All that aside, the 2007-2008 regular season schedule resumes tonight after a two-day lay-off. The Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maples Leafs will renew hostilities in the centre-piece of the evening’s action. In the three other games, Montreal visits Carolina, Anaheim will face Detroit, and Colorado will host Dallas.

Despite the trouble surrounding the Predators and the lingering lack of interest in at least half of the league’s 30 franchises, the news isn’t all bad. In fact, if all goes according to plan, there might be a good deal of optimism in the league’s head offices throughout the winter.

Bettman & Co. have only to look down the street and around the corner to find it. The New York Rangers, bolstered by Chris Drury and Scott Gomez, are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders for the first time since the mid-90s. Not coincidentally, the Blueshirts’ success at the end of the last century marked the pinnacle of the NHL’s popularity in the United States. It’s a proven formula – the league’s status ebbs and flows with the Rangers’ position in the standings.

The Pittsburgh Penguins can consider themselves among the league’s elite as well. Sidney Crosby, fresh off a Hart and Art Ross trophy double, is the face and figure of the NHL. A Stanley Cup Championship for Sid the Kid, one would think, would do wonders for the league in its own backyard. And with the likes of Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Ryan Whitney, Brooks Orpik, and Marc-Andre Fleury providing a young and talented nucleus, the Penguins are situated to be a force in the Eastern Conference for some time.

On the other side of the border, the Ottawa Senators are under the usual pressure to bring a championship to the nation’s capital. Dany Heatley and Wade Redden will be unrestricted free agents in July and General Manager Bryan Murray will be hardpressed to retain both. Heatley and the club, embroiled in contract negotiations throughout the pre-season, are thought to be upwards of $1million and several years apart on the terms.

Still, the Senators appear the likeliest Canadian team to challenge for the Stanley Cup. A notion which isn’t even disputed in Toronto. Simply making the play-offs would equate to a successful season in the Big Smoke. And then, who knows? As proven by the Flames and Oilers in recent years, anything is possible if you can get into the dance. If they don’t, General Manager John Ferguson can kiss his job goodbye.

Unfortunately, and mostly due to his own lack of judgment, the Leafs are perilously close to the salary-cap ceiling. And one look at the roster prompts the question, “Where is it all going?” Mats Sundin, all of 37-years-old, remains the team’s best offensive forward and only, legitimate, scoring centre. Kyle Wellwood, while flashy, fast, and talented, cannot seem to remain healthy long enough to make an impact. Unless Vesa Toskala can win games in the manner of Ed Belfour and Curtis Joseph before him, 7th or 8th-place in the conference is as good as things will get in Toronto. And even that may be a stretch.

A quick word on the goaltending glut in Montreal. General Manager Bob Gainey and head coach Guy Carbonneau seemed at odds, just days ago, over the future of blue-chip prospect Carey Price. If I were Gainey, I’d send Price to the American League and wait for a trading partner. It may sound stupid to squander a player of Price’s caliber, but there are sure to be quality players being dangled Montreal’s way after a few months have gone by. One in particular.

The Tampa Bay Lightning will not make the playoffs unless they address the goaltending situation. And while their trio of high-profile and big-money forwards, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis, will likely keep them in the mix, a lack of depth and the absence of a quality stopper will prevent the Lightning from competing down the stretch. Tampa GM Jay Feaster will probably be prepared to move one of his superstar forwards in exchange for a goaltender by about Christmastime. And even if it’s St. Louis, the Canadiens should pounce on the opportunity. They have the cap room and could acquire some depth players in addition to the former scoring champion in exchange for Price. It’s just a thought; but I don’t think it’s that farfetched of one.

Out west, the Detroit Red Wings seem the consensus pick to challenge the likes of Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and the New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup final. Personally, I find this forecast not only pre-mature, but ill-advised. Dominik Hasek is 42-years-old; Niklas Lidstrom is 37; and Chris Chelios is 45. Sure, the Wings have some players in the prime of their careers – notably Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. But to say that Detroit could oust one of Anaheim or San Jose in a best-of-seven playoff series is ridiculous.

In fact, I feel that the Ducks and Sharks are the only true contenders in the Western Conference. Joe Thornton has just signed a new, big-money contract; and Patrick Marleau has re-upped for two more years as well. The two big centremen undoubtedly form the best one-two punch in the NHL. But it hardly ends there. Jonathon Cheechoo is just one year removed from leading the league in goals. Milan Michalek and Steve Bernier are potentially elite forwards. And Jeremy Roenick has been added to provide depth and leadership.

On defense, the developments of Matt Carle and Christian Erhoff allowed GM Doug Wilson to let Scott Hannan leave the club. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is just the latest blue-chipper to emerge from the Sharks’ defenseman-factory. And Kyle McLaren and Craig Rivet round-out a very capable group.

North of the border, the Vancouver Canucks stand a very good chance of repeating as Northwest Division champions. Alain Vigneault, last season’s Jack Adams Trophy winner as coach of the year, ensures that his club is tight and responsible at all times. Still, despite the new, defense-first philosophy, the Sedin twins enjoyed break-out seasons. Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison were unusually quiet; and any increase in production from them will only boost Vancouver’s chances.

The Canucks will, however, live and die by the performance of goaltender Roberto Luongo. The 28-year-old was dominant last season – recording 47-wins and posting a 2.29 goals-against-average and .921 save-percentage. He almost single-handedly ousted the Dallas Stars in the first round of the post-season as well. In Luongo, the Canucks have a goaltender who not only guarantees a spot in the play-offs, but a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup as well.

Miikka Kiprusoff is under similar pressure in Calgary. The 30-year-old posted his second successive 40-win season with the Flames in 2006-2007. However, since leading the team to Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Final in 2004, he has been out-played by the opposing goaltender in each of the past two play-off defeats.

Additionally, General Manager Daryl Sutter has assembled a formidable group of defenseman. Led by third-year all-star Dion Phaneuf, the Flames boast the deepest defensive corps in the NHL. Cory Sarich has arrived in Cowtown as an unrestricted free agent; and Sutter also added Adrian Aucoin from Chicago and blue-chipper David Hale from New Jersey. Hale, in particular, could turn into a very valuable asset for the Flames.

Coach Mike Keenan will start Jerome Iginla, Craig Conroy, and Alex Tanguay as his first line against Philadelphia on Thursday. They will remain together as long as Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, and Owen Nolan produce as the second unit. The Flames won’t score at the pace of several of their high-flying Western Conference rivals. But they don’t have to. They are a lock to make the play-offs and nothing but an extended run in the postseason will be viewed as a success.

The Edmonton Oilers will either boom or bust. Personally, I rather like what General Manager Kevin Lowe has assembled. And I find no fault with his off-season tactics in acquiring Dustin Penner. He operated his business fully within the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement and is likely just the first of many GMs to dip into the restricted free agent waters. That said, his close working relationship with Anaheim Ducks GM Brian Burke warranted at least a phone call.

The Oilers were certainly have a new look about them this season. Mathieu Garon’s presence will allow coach Craig McTavish the opportunity to rest Dwayne Roloson on a regular basis. Lowe and McTavish are probably secretly hoping that Garon steals the starting job from the 37-year-old Roloson at some point over the winter.

Defensively, I feel the Oilers improved drastically over the off-season. I know many Oiler fans who were outraged with the trade of Jason Smith to the Philadelphia Flyers over the summer. Honestly, I don’t know why. Joni Pitkanen is a phenomenal player and could, conceivably, be seen as a top defenseman in the NHL within the next few seasons. The presence of Sheldon Souray will do wonders for the Oiler’s power-play.

Behind those two are top prospects Danny Syvret and Denis Grebeshkov. Both should get quality minutes as the season progresses. Ladislav Smid is another young gem; and Steve Staios can nicely fill the veteran role of Smith.

Up front, the Oilers have a wealth of young, quick, talented forwards. Sam Gagner made the club out of training-camp and joins a group which already includes Ales Hemsky, Jarret Stoll, Raffi Torres, Marc-Antoine Poulliot, and Robert Nilsson. Unfortunately, McTavish cannot afford to be patient with any of them. Edmonton will struggle to score this season and every contribution they receive from their youngsters will be welcome. I think the Oilers will make the play-offs; and they’ll surprise a lot of people in doing so.